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Retail gasoline prices are among the most recognizable price point in American commerce, yet they are among the least understood. What goes into the price of a gallon of gasoline? Here is a primer on what causes prices to go up or down and vary from store to store.
Ownership & Supply Arrangements
Two key factors that influence retail motor fuels prices are who owns the store and how they get their supplies.
Unlike a few decades ago, when the major oil companies owned and operated a significant percentage of the fueling locations, today only about one percent of all stores are owned by one of the major oil companies.
About another 4 percent are owned by a refining company like Valero, Sunoco or Hess. Instead, the vast majority about 95 percent of stores are owned by independent convenience store companies, whether one-store operators or large regional chains.
Each business has a number of factors that could impact its sales price. They include:
- Branded or unbranded fuels: Typically, stores that sell a branded fuel pay a premium for that fuel, which covers marketing support and signage, as well as the proprietary additive package.
- Dealer tank wagon or rack: Retailers who purchase fuel via dealer tank wagon may pay a higher price than those who get their fuel at "the rack" or terminal. However, rack prices may experience more volatility.
- Length of contract: Even if they sell unbranded fuels, retailers may have long-term contracts with a specific refiner. The length of the contract which can be 20 years, sometimes longer can affect the price that retailers pay for fuels.
- Volume: As in virtually every other business, retailers may get a better deal based on the amount of fuel that they purchase, whether based on volume per store or total number of stores.
Even within a specific company, stores may not each have the same arrangements, since companies often sell multiple brands of fuels, especially if they have acquired sites with existing supply contracts.
Crude Oil Prices Have Most Affect on Retail Prices
There are four factors that make up the price of retail fuels: Crude oil costs, taxes, refining costs and distribution and marketing (which accounts for all costs after the fuel leaves the refinery).
Crude oil prices have, by far, the biggest affect over the retail price of fuels. For one, crude oil costs are responsible for about two-thirds of the cost of a gallon of gasoline. In 2010, crude oil costs were 68 percent of the retail price of gasoline. Second, while there may be slight variations in the costs of refining or distributing and retailing fuels, crude oil prices can experience huge swings. (Taxes are largely static, unless they are based on prices not set per gallon. Refining and marketing margins have a much less significant impact on prices, and are often a function of wholesale prices.)
Give there are 42 gallons in a barrel, a rough calculation is that retail prices ultimately move approximately 2.5 cents for every $1 change in the price of crude oil. In short, as crude prices change, so does the price of retail gasoline.
Costs of Goods Sold Leads Retail
Retail prices are set according to a complex analysis of competitive pressures and the ever-changing wholesale cost of gasoline. Due to differences in supply arrangements, contract terms and delivery schedules, retailers often pay different prices at different times for the gasoline they sell at retail. Retailers must set a price that best balances their need to cover their costs with the need to remain competitive and attract consumers, who are very price sensitive and will shop somewhere else for a difference of a few cents per gallon.
Consequently, retailers often cannot always adjust retail prices to fully compensate for changes in their wholesale costs because they must remain competitive with nearby stores who may not have incurred similar changes in costs.
When prices go up, retailers may reduce their markup to remain competitive with nearby stores. Likewise, when prices go down, retailers may be able to extend their markup and recover lost profits.
In the end, the annual average retail markup (the difference between retail price and wholesale cost) has averaged 15 cents per gallon over the past five years.
Retail Profitability Measured Over Time
The pattern of retail profitability is the opposite of what most consumers think. Due to the volatility in the wholesale price of gasoline and the competitive structure of the market, fuel retailers typically see profitability decrease as prices rise, and increase when prices fall. On average, it costs a retailer about 12 cents to sell a gallon of gasoline. Using the five-year average markup of 15 cents, the typical retailers averages about 3 cents per gallon in profit. In 2010, the average national retail markup was 16.3 cents, delivering an average profitability of four to five cents per gallon.
Over the course of a year, retail profits (or even losses) on fuels can vary widely. In some cases, a few great weeks can make up for an otherwise dreadful year or vice versa.
With its extreme volatility, fuels retailing is not for the faint of heart or those with limited access to capital. Perhaps that is why that since 1994, while overall fuels demand in the United States has increased, the overall number of fueling locations has decreased from 200,000 to less than 160,000 sites. |